EIA STEO for Natural Gas Markets - A Complete Summary (59 Pages to 2)

1. Historical and Forecast Supply for Natural Gas

• U.S. Marketed Production: In 2024, production remained stable, averaging 103.3 Bcf/d with a peak in February. The forecast for 2025 projects growth to over 104.5Bcf/d, a 1% increase led by a 6% rise in the Permian region and a 5% rise in the Eagle Ford. Conversely, production in the Appalachian Basin and other regions is expected to slightly decline​.

• Regional Insights:

  • Permian: Continued production growth, driven by associated natural gas from oil production, particularly amid low gas prices.

  • Haynesville & Appalachia: Production affected by price lows in early 2024, causing curtailment in these regions until market improvement.

• Canadian Imports: Averaged 7.9 Bcf/d in 2024, slightly increasing from 8.2 to 8.6 Bcf/d forecasted in various quarters for 2025​.

2. Historical and Forecast Demand for Power Generation

• Total Power Generation: Expected 3% growth in 2024 from 2023, supported by industrial sector demand and rising commercial demand, notably from data centers. A further 1% increase is forecasted for 2025.

• Fuel Sources:

  • Natural Gas: Generation to rise by 3% in 2024, followed by a projected 5% decline in 2025 due to higher gas prices and lower demand​.

  • Solar: Projected 34% growth in generation for 2024 and 31% in 2025, with the largest capacity growth in Texas, impacting natural gas demand due to increased battery storage integration​.

  • Coal: Consumption projected to drop, with stockpiles falling from 139 million short tons (MMst) in November 2024 to 131 MMst by December​.

3. Historical and Forecast Demand for LNG Feedgas

• Current Operations: U.S. LNG exports are expected to grow nearly 2 Bcf/d in 2025, with strong international demand bolstered by expanded U.S. export capacity​.

4. Natural Gas Storage Levels

• End-of-March and End-of-October Levels:

  • March 2024: Projected end-of-winter storage at 2,306 Bcf.

  • October 2024: Forecasted end-of-summer storage at 3,615 Bcf, which would be about 6% above the 2019-2023 average levels​.

5. Infrastructure Developments

• Pipelines & LNG Projects: The report highlights ongoing and anticipated expansions in U.S. LNG export capacity, supporting increased feedgas demand for 2025. These infrastructure investments are critical for meeting international LNG demand​.

6. Historical and Forecast Natural Gas Prices

• Henry Hub Spot Price:

  • 2023 Average: $2.26/MMBtu.

  • 2024 Projection: Averages $2.20/MMBtu, reflecting a 4% drop from October's average due to high storage levels.

  • 2025 Forecast: Expected to increase to $2.90/MMBtu due to rising LNG export demand​