EQT Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary

EQT delivered a highly positive Q1 2025 earnings call, marked by record free cash flow, increased production guidance, and a major acquisition. The company’s tone was confident and optimistic, highlighting strong well performance, improved efficiency, and significant momentum across upstream and midstream operations.

1) Natural Gas Production – Historical & Forecast

• Q1 2025 production: 571 Bcfe, at the high-end of guidance.

• 2025 full-year guidance: increased by 25 Bcfe to 2,200–2,300 Bcfe, reflecting operational efficiencies and synergy capture from Equitrans Midstream.

• Quote: “We are raising 2025 production guidance by 25 Bcfe… due to strong well performance, ongoing efficiency gains, and additional Equitrans synergy capture.” — CEO Toby Rice​

2) Production Curtailments or Shut-ins

• Tactical production management was used to match output with peak winter pricing.

• “We surged volumes by opening chokes in Q1’25 to meet strong winter demand… opening chokes drove $40 MM of revenue uplift.”​

• Winter downtime was ~90% lower than the previous major winter storm event.

3) TILs and DUCs

• Q2 2025 plan: 32–50 net wells turned-in-line.

• Full-year 2025: 95–120 net wells TIL.

• Quote: “...strong well performance from wells turned-in-line since the first quarter of 2024…”​

4) Rig & Frac Crew Activity

• Rig counts for 2025:

  • Top-hole rigs: 1–2

  • Horizontal rigs: 2–3

• Frac crews: 2–3

• Dropped from 3 to 2 frac crews in April due to improved efficiency.

• Quote: “Set yet another record for completed footage per day... allowing business to maintain pace with fewer frac crews.”​

5) Hedging, Pricing & Breakeven Costs

• Q1 2025 average realized price: $3.77/Mcfe (up from $3.22/Mcfe in Q1 2024).

• Breakeven: ~$2.00/MMBtu for unlevered free cash flow.

• Hedging (Q2-Q4 2025):

  • ~900 MMDth total hedged, avg swap prices $3.11–$3.27/Dth.

  • Options positions include short calls (strike $3.48–$5.49) and long puts (strike $2.83–$3.30).​

6) Politics, Economy & Tariffs

• No direct mention of tariffs or macro-political risks.

• Implied economic strategy revolves around energy security and infrastructure independence.

• CEO emphasized national importance: “The gas moving through this critical infrastructure will ensure the energy needs of millions... and bolster national security.”​

7) Pipelines, LNG, & Infrastructure

• Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP): Capacity 2 Bcf/d, expanding to 2.5 Bcf/d.

• New Olympus Acquisition: $1.8B deal for 90,000 net acres, 500 MMcf/d production.

• Integrated Midstream: 950 miles of FERC transmission, >8.0 Bcfe/d throughput.

• MVP exposure improves access to Transco Zones 4 & 5 South (premium Southeast gas markets).

• Quote: “Expected to improve corporate differentials $0.15–$0.20/Mcf beginning in late 2027.”​

8) Market Activity & State of the Market

• Market described as increasingly volatile with “fat tail” pricing distributions.

• Lack of storage and infrastructure leads to greater price swings.

• EQT sees value in staying unhedged to benefit from “asymmetric upside.”

• Quote: “To capture peak pricing, companies must be able to survive the troughs.”​

Q&A SECTION INSIGHTS

Strategy & Acquisition

• Olympus deal seen as accretive with 15% unlevered FCF yield and ~$2/MMBtu breakeven.

• “We view this as a continuation of our strategy to vertically integrate and operate at the lowest cost.” — Management​

Production Discipline

• On curtailments: “We’ve built optionality to adjust volumes without disrupting ops—choke management is key.”

• Responded to analyst concern about oversupply by emphasizing capital efficiency over volume chasing.

MVP & Market Access

• MVP cited as “transformational” for basis uplift and premium pricing access.

• Expansion and firm sales contracts already underway.

Hedging Flexibility

• Strategy leans more tactical than programmatic.

• “We use hedges to protect downside, but maintain exposure to capitalize on strength.”

Key Figures & Dates

• Q1 2025 Sales Volume: 571 Bcfe

• Full-Year 2025 Guidance: 2,200–2,300 Bcfe

• Olympus Acquisition Close: Expected Q3 2025

• Total Debt (3/31/25): $8.4B

• Net Debt (3/31/25): $8.1B

• 2025 Capex Guidance: $2.3–2.45B (down $25M from prior)

• Turned-in-Line Wells (2025): 95–120