European Gas Markets 2025: The No-Nonsense Guide for Traders

2024 Gas Markets Overview: European gas markets in 2024 experienced stabilization but remained highly volatile compared to pre-crisis levels. While annual gas demand nearly matched 2023 levels, Q4 marked a sharp increase in consumption due to cold weather, low renewable output (dunkelflaute), and heating needs. Despite mild average temperatures, short, intense cold snaps had outsized impacts on gas consumption. Gas prices rallied steadily throughout the year, particularly in Q4, as European storage levels were drawn down significantly, LNG demand rebounded, and global supply remained tight.

Winter 2024/25 Performance (So Far):

• Supply-Side Dynamics: European domestic production declined modestly, pipeline imports (especially from Norway) were constrained, and reliance on LNG imports and storage withdrawals increased during peak demand periods.

• Demand-Side Trends: Cold weather episodes and low wind generation pushed Q4 2024 demand 7% higher year-on-year, reversing declines seen in earlier quarters.

• Storage: European storage levels at the start of winter were stable year-on-year, but rapid withdrawals in Q4 left reserves 15 Bcm lower at year-end compared to December 2023. Replenishing storage in summer 2025 will be critical.

• Global LNG Market: European LNG imports rebounded in Q4 after a year-long decline, as prices became more competitive relative to Asia.

REPORT SECTIONS:

1) European Gas Supply: Domestic Production, Imports, and LNG

2) European Gas Demand: 2024 and 2025 Outlook

3) European LNG Demand: 2024 and 2025

4) Regulatory, Structural, and Geopolitical Factors in 2025