Future of Coal Generation with Trump EPA pick former Rep. Lee Zeldin

President-elect Donald Trump's nomination of former Congressman Lee Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is poised to significantly influence coal-fired power plant operations and their retirement schedules.

1. Lee Zeldin's Background and Relationship with Trump

Lee Zeldin, a Republican from New York, served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2015 to 2023. During his tenure, he was known for his conservative stance on environmental regulations, often opposing measures he viewed as detrimental to economic growth. Zeldin has been a steadfast supporter of Trump's policies, aligning closely with the former president's deregulatory agenda. His appointment to the EPA underscores a shared commitment to reducing regulatory burdens on industries, including the energy sector.

2. Trump's Historical Views on Energy Markets and Coal Production

Throughout his political career, Donald Trump has advocated for the expansion of fossil fuel industries, particularly coal. He has consistently criticized environmental regulations that he perceives as obstacles to energy production and economic growth. During his first term, Trump rolled back numerous environmental protections, aiming to revive the coal industry and achieve energy independence. Despite these efforts, market forces such as the rise of natural gas and renewable energy sources continued to challenge the coal sector.

3. Upcoming Coal Plant Retirements (2025-2026)

There are 19 coal-fired power plants scheduled for retirement in 2025 and 2026. The name plate capacity is close to 16000 MW for the plants.

Full list with a details including size, location, owner below.

4. Projected Electricity Demand Increase (2025-2027)

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), electricity demand is projected to grow modestly over the next few years:

2025 +1.2%, 2026 +1.3%, 2027 1.4%

These projections reflect anticipated economic growth and population increases.

5. Overview of Key EPA Regulations Affecting Coal Plants

Several EPA regulations have significant implications for coal-fired power plants:

1. Carbon Rule: Sets limits on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants to mitigate climate change.

2. Ozone Transport Rule: Aims to reduce interstate air pollution by limiting emissions that contribute to ozone formation.

3. Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS): Establishes limits on hazardous air pollutants, including mercury, emitted by power plants.

4. Effluent Limitation Guidelines: Regulates wastewater discharges from power plants to protect water quality.

5. Coal Ash Rule: Governs the disposal of coal combustion residuals to prevent environmental contamination.

6. Regional Haze Rule: Seeks to improve visibility in national parks and wilderness areas by reducing emissions that cause haze.

These regulations have been instrumental in driving environmental improvements but have also contributed to the economic challenges facing coal plants.

6. Potential Impact on Coal Generation Under the New Administration

With Zeldin at the helm of the EPA, the Trump administration is expected to pursue a deregulatory agenda that could benefit the coal industry.

Potential actions include:

1. Rolling Back Regulations: Revising or repealing existing EPA rules that impose stringent emission limits on coal plants.

2. Extending Plant Lifespans: Delaying or preventing the retirement of coal plants by easing regulatory pressures.

3. Promoting Coal Usage: Implementing policies that encourage the continued use of coal in electricity generation.

While these measures may provide temporary relief to the coal industry, they may face legal challenges and opposition from environmental groups. Additionally, market dynamics, such as the competitiveness of natural gas and renewables, will continue to influence the viability of coal-fired power generation.

Details on Coal Plants to Retire:

FULL LIST AVAILABLE FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
1. J.H. Campbell Generating Complex

• Location: West Olive, Michigan, USA

• Owner: Consumers Energy

• Capacity: 1,540 MW

• Retirement Date: Scheduled for 2025

• Details: The complex consists of three units, with Unit 3 being the largest. The retirement aligns with Consumers Energy's plan to eliminate coal from its fuel mix by 2025.

2. South Oak Creek Power Plant

• Location: Oak Creek, Wisconsin, USA

• Owner: We Energies (WEC Energy Group)

• Capacity: 1,135 MW

• Retirement Date: Units 5 and 6 retired in 2020; Units 7 and 8 scheduled for retirement by 2024

• Details: The plant has been operational since the 1950s, with newer units added in the 1960s. The retirement is part of We Energies' transition to cleaner energy sources.

3. Brandon Shores Generating Station

• Location: Anne Arundel County, Maryland, USA

• Owner: Talen Energy

• Capacity: 1,370 MW

• Retirement Date: Scheduled for June 2025

• Details: The plant comprises two coal-fired units and is part of the larger Wagner Complex. The retirement is in response to environmental regulations and market conditions.

4. Intermountain Power Project

• Location: Delta, Utah, USA

• Owner: Intermountain Power Agency

• Capacity: 1,800 MW

• Retirement Date: Scheduled for 2025

• Details: The project supplies power primarily to California municipalities. Plans are underway to convert the facility to natural gas and eventually to hydrogen.

5. Comanche Generating Station

• Location: Pueblo, Colorado, USA

• Owner: Xcel Energy

• Capacity: 1,410 MW

• Retirement Date: Units 1 and 2 retired in 2022; Unit 3 scheduled for 2030

• Details: Unit 3 is the largest in Colorado and has faced operational and financial challenges. The retirement is part of Xcel Energy's clean energy transition plan.

6. Stanton Energy Center

• Location: Orlando, Florida, USA

• Owner: Orlando Utilities Commission

• Capacity: 1,217 MW

• Retirement Date: Coal units scheduled for retirement by 2027

• Details: The center includes coal, natural gas, and solar units. The coal units' retirement aligns with the commission's sustainability goals.

7. Baldwin Energy Complex

• Location: Baldwin, Illinois, USA

• Owner: Vistra Corp.

• Capacity: 1,800 MW

• Retirement Date: Scheduled for 2025

• Details: The complex has three coal-fired units and has been operational since the 1970s. The retirement is part of Vistra's plan to reduce its carbon footprint.

8. F.B. Culley Generating Station

• Location: Newburgh, Indiana, USA

• Owner: Vectren (CenterPoint Energy)

• Capacity: 369 MW

• Retirement Date: Unit 2 retired in 2023; Unit 3 scheduled for 2025

• Details: The plant has been operational since the 1950s, with Unit 3 added in 1973. The retirement is part of CenterPoint's transition to renewable energy.

9. TransAlta Centralia Generation

• Location: Centralia, Washington, USA

• Owner: TransAlta Corporation

• Capacity: 1,340 MW

• Retirement Date: Unit 1 retired in 2020; Unit 2 scheduled for 2025

• Details: The plant is the largest in Washington state and has been a significant power supplier. The retirement is part of a state agreement to transition away from coal.

10. Naughton Power Plant

• Location: Kemmerer, Wyoming, USA

• Owner: PacifiCorp (Rocky Mountain Power)

• Capacity: 700 MW

• Retirement Date: Unit 3 retired in 2019; Units 1 and 2 scheduled for 2025

• Details: The plant has been operational since the 1970s. The retirement is part of PacifiCorp's plan to reduce coal generation in favor of renewables.

11. Craig Station

• Location: Craig, Colorado, USA

• Owner: Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association

• Capacity: 1,285 MW

• Retirement Date: Unit 1 retired in 2025; Units 2 and 3 scheduled for 2028 and 2030, respectively

• Details: The plant is a major employer in the region. The retirement is part of Colorado's plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

12. R.M. Schahfer Generating Station

• Location: Wheatfield, Indiana, USA

• Owner: Northern Indiana Public Service Company (NIPSCO)

• Capacity: 1,780 MW

• Retirement Date: Scheduled for 2023

• Details: The plant has been operational since the 1970s. The retirement is part of NIPSCO's plan to transition to renewable energy sources.

13. Sherburne County Generating Station (Sherco)

• Location: Becker, Minnesota, USA

• Owner: Xcel Energy

• Capacity: 2,238 MW

• Details: Sherco is Minnesota's largest power plant, consisting of three units. Unit 2 was retired on December 31, 2023, with Units 1 and 3 scheduled for retirement in 2026 and 2030, respectively. The site is transitioning to renewable energy, including the development of the Midwest's largest solar facility.

14. Rush Island Energy Center

• Location: Festus, Missouri, USA

• Owner: Ameren Missouri

• Capacity: 1,242 MW

• Details: The plant comprises two coal-fired units. In 2022, Ameren announced plans to retire the facility by 2024, accelerating its transition to cleaner energy sources.

15. Gainesville Renewable Energy Center (GREC)

• Location: Gainesville, Florida, USA

• Owner: Gainesville Regional Utilities

• Capacity: 102.5 MW

• Details: GREC is a biomass power plant that began operations in 2013. It utilizes wood waste to generate electricity and is part of Gainesville's renewable energy portfolio.

16. Columbia Energy Center

• Location: Portage, Wisconsin, USA

• Owner: Alliant Energy

• Capacity: 1,023 MW

• Details: The plant consists of two coal-fired units. Alliant Energy announced plans to retire the facility by the end of 2024 as part of its Clean Energy Blueprint to reduce carbon emissions.

17. Indian River Generating Station

• Location: Millsboro, Delaware, USA

• Owner: NRG Energy

• Capacity: 784 MW

• Details: The plant has undergone unit retirements, with the last coal-fired unit scheduled for retirement by 2022. The site is transitioning to cleaner energy sources.

18. Cumberland Fossil Plant

• Location: Cumberland City, Tennessee, USA

• Owner: Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)

• Capacity: 2,470 MW

• Details: Cumberland is TVA's largest coal-fired power plant. In 2021, TVA announced plans to retire the plant's coal units by 2030, replacing them with natural gas and renewable energy sources.

19. Kingston Fossil Plant

• Location: Kingston, Tennessee, USA

• Owner: Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)

• Capacity: 1,398 MW

• Details: In April 2024, TVA announced plans to retire the Kingston Fossil Plant by the end of 2027. The plant's nine coal-fired units will be replaced with a new energy complex featuring natural gas, solar energy, and battery storage.