Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) 2025 Integrated Resource Plan

1) Long-Term Demand for Power

• Growth Projections: TVA forecasts a 0.8% annual increase in demand through 2050, with higher growth (up to 2.3% annually) in scenarios where net-zero regulations drive clean energy technology adoption.

• Key Drivers:

  • Electric Vehicle (EV) Adoption: A significant driver of growth, with EV-related demand expected to add 16,416 GWh by 2035, continuing to rise through 2050.

  • Industrial Sector: Electrification of industrial processes and heavy-duty transportation will further drive demand.

  • Residential and Commercial Growth: Population and employment increases will sustain residential and commercial demand, though offset by energy efficiency measures.

  • Distributed Solar and Energy Efficiency: Behind-the-meter solar and energy efficiency programs will reduce net demand by an estimated 19,902 GWh by 2050, moderating the overall growth trajectory.

2) Power Plant Retirement and Additions

• Coal Retirements: TVA plans to retire all coal plants by 2035, with key retirements including Cumberland and Kingston coal plants, expected within the next five years, pending replacement capacity.

• Natural Gas Additions: TVA is adding around 4,900 MW of new natural gas capacity, replacing around 2,500 MW of coal and 1,100 MW of gas units, with gas playing a critical role in replacing coal as a baseload resource.

• Nuclear Expansion: Browns Ferry nuclear licenses are being extended to the 2050s. New nuclear capacity additions, including advanced reactors, are being planned for deployment by 2050.

3) Wind and Solar Additions

• Solar: TVA has contracted for 3,600 MW of solar, with 700 MW already operational by 2023. The remaining capacity is expected to be online by 2027, with a continued focus on utility-scale projects.

• Wind: Currently, TVA has 1,240 MW of wind power, mostly from the Midwest. Further additions, totaling 200 MW, are expected from MISO by 2029. Wind will play a smaller role compared to solar but will contribute to the diversification of renewable sources.

• Storage: Around 400 MW of battery storage is contracted to complement solar, ensuring system reliability as renewable penetration increases.

4) Transmission Changes

• Strategic Transmission Investments: Significant investments in transmission infrastructure are planned to integrate distributed resources, particularly solar and battery storage. These investments are also aimed at improving grid flexibility and reliability.

• HVDC Lines: TVA is considering High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission lines to connect renewable sources from distant regions like the Midwest, supporting future wind projects and further solar additions.

5) Nuclear and Coal Plant Generation Changes

• Coal Generation: All coal plants are set to retire by 2035. As of 2023, coal still accounted for 14% of TVA's generation mix, but this will decrease rapidly as plants retire, driven by regulatory and economic pressures.

• Nuclear: Nuclear power will continue to be a cornerstone of TVA’s energy strategy. Browns Ferry’s license renewals will keep the plant operational until the 2050s. New advanced nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors (SMRs), are planned to come online by 2050, providing baseload carbon-free energy to meet growing demand.

6) Regulatory Changes

• Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): The IRA provides significant incentives for clean energy, with up to 50% investment tax credits (ITC) available for renewable, storage, and nuclear projects. TVA expects an average 40% ITC for future renewable projects.

• EPA Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Rules: The 2024 GHG rules will enforce stricter CO2 emissions limits for coal and gas plants. This includes CCS requirements for new gas plants and limits on coal plant operations. These regulations will accelerate the transition from coal and drive further gas retirements by 2035.
  
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